This session will focus on the potential role of scenarios in the coming IPCC Working Group reports; the role of scenarios for integration across disciplines and communities, and the potential connections to IPBES.

Moderators:

• Bas van Ruijven, Research Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar, Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
• Jan Sigurd Fugelsvedt, Research Director and Special Advisor, Center for International Climate Research (CICERO)
• Zuzana Harmáčková, Head, Department of Social-Ecological Analysis, Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences

Panellists:

• Robert Vautard, IPCC WGI Co-Chair and Lead, IPSL Institute, National Centre for Scientific Research at Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
• Bart van den Hurk, IPCC WGII Co-Chair and Scientific Director, Deltares
• Paula Harrison, Principal Natural Capital Scientist and Professor of Land and Water Modelling, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
• Helen Roy, Professor in Ecology at the University of Exeter and Individual Merit Scientist – Ecologist, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
• Shizuka Hashimoto, Professor, Department of Ecosystem Studies, University of Tokyo

There is increasing evidence that people are suffering and dying from climate change, that risks will continue to rise for nearly all climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change, and that health systems are vulnerable. The session will discuss extending the SSP narratives and quantifications for the health sector to inform more robust and useful projections of the magnitude and burden of future risks and of the effectiveness of policy responses under different climate and development pathways.

Moderator: Kristie Ebi, Professor of Global Health, University of Washington, US
Panellists:

• Alan Dangour, Director of Climate and Health, Wellcome
• Helen Macintyre, Principal Climate Change Scientist, UK Health Security Agency
• Camille Belmin, Researcher, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
• Gregor Kiesewetter, Senior Research Scholar, Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Overview of ScenarioMIP process and key outcomes

Detlef van Vuuren and Keywan Riahi

Energy system developments across the scenarioMIP scenarios

Christoph Bertram

Exploring land-use and GHG emission futures: Insights from CMIP7 ScenarioMIP

Alexander Popp, Florian Humpenöder, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gerd Brantes Angelkorte, Pedro Rochedo, Xin Zhao, Jonathan Doelman, Astrid Bos, Detlef van Vuuren, Yazhen Wu, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Cindy Azuero, Laurent Drouet, Elmar Kriegler

Carbon Dioxide Removal in ScenarioMIP scenarios and extensions

TBD

CMIP Earth System Modeling outlook

John Dunne

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Switzerland (SSP-CH): A novel approach applied to develop current national SSPs

Lena Gubler, Pascal Tschumi, Marco Pütz, Irmi Seidl, Jürg Füssler, Quirin Oberpriller, Nicolas Schmid, Sophie Bogler, David Giger, Andreas Kemmler, Alexander Piégsa, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Minh Phuong Vu, Andreas Brutsche, Almuth Kirchner

National land use pathways for Germany and their implications for Ecosystems and Biodiversity – a modelling approach based on new national SSPs

Maximilian Witting, Karina Winkler, Felix Gulde, Mark Rounsevell, Matthias Garschagen

Downscaling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the Czech Republic: A novel integration of horizon scanning and stakeholder validation in an Eastern European context

Lenka Suchá, Eliška K. Lorencová, Magdaléna Koudelková, Jitka Martínková, Zuzana Harmáčková

Synthesis of physical climate storylines through common policy directions (CPDs)

Taro Kunimitsu, Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann

Impacts of industrial policies on decarbonization pathways in the European Union through a modelling approach

Alice Di Bella

Futuring Capacity in Energy and Climate Governance: Integrating Policy Analysis and Foresight for Japan’s Energy Future

Manuela G. Hartwig, Masahiro Sugiyama, Hiroto Shiraki

Estimating effects of existing policies on GHG emissions through linked modelling: the case of Switzerland

Jean Chateau, Luisa Lutz, Evangelos Panos, Jules Schers, Toon Vandyck

The Net Zero Futures Platform: pathways for transforming land use for net zero, nature and people.

Dr Sarah Sinclair

Imagining a net zero health system of the future

Caitríona Callan, Genevieve Cameron, Anya Gopfert, Jay Burt, Tom Hardie

Net-zero compatible development pathways in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa: lessons for short-term actions

Yann Briand, Francisco Lallana, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Fei Teng, Amit Garg, Retno Dewi, Jordi Tovilla, Bryce McCall

Technologies Enabling Low-Cost Net-Zero Pathway in Saudi Arabia

Yang Qiu

En Route to Paris Goals: Prioritising Well-Being in the Fair Sharing of Global Carbon Budgets

Gaurav Gharde, Alice Larkin, Carly McLachlan

Growth, Equity, and Urgency: How Faster Economic Convergence Reshapes Climate Ambition

Mel George, Haewon McJeon, Anand Patwardhan

Fair climate finance and mitigation benefits under climate uncertainty

Adriano Vinca, Marina Andrijevic, Edward Byers, Setu Pelz, Jarmo Kikstra, Matt Gidden, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi

Towards the next generation of stringent mitigation scenarios: From ScenarioMIP to the AR7

Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler, Gabriel Abrahão, Lavinia Baumstark, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Florian Humpenöder, Fabrice Lécuyer, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Merfort, Alexander Popp, Jessica Strefler

Use of scenarios in national climate change risk assessment for the health sector in Europe

Sari Kovats, Grace Turner

Leveraging Climate-Sensitive Disease Modelling for Health Resilience in a Changing Climate

Anna B. Kawiecki

Children disproportionately exposed to attributable heat stress today and under near-term warming of 1.5°C and 2°C

Rosa Pietroiusti, Erich Fischer, Rupert Stuart-Smith, Luke J. Harrington, Chloe Brimicombe, Matthias Mengel, Annalisa Savaresi, Sam Adelman, Wim Thiery

Health impacts and socioeconomic inequalities of future outdoor air pollution in Europe

Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Jon Sampedro, Dirk Jan Van de Ven, Russell Horowitz

Mapping the solution space through multi-layered scenario analysis

Mark Dekker, Alaa Al Khourdajie

A likely story: scenarios, projections and predictions

Robin Lamboll

Assessing and visualizing mitigation policy effort through probabilistic and counterfactual scenarios

Jessica Jewell, Avi Jakhmola, Vadim Vinichenko, Anastasia Pavlenko, Aleh Cherp

Complexity and uncertainty in future precipitation across climate transition zone in South-Eastern Africa: A climate narratives approach

Ajay Bhave, Neha Mittal, Suraje Dessai

An Integrated Model for Nature Future Scenarios

TianXiang Yue, ChenChen Wu

Modelling human and nature outcomes under scenarios of KM-GBF target implementation

Jay Burns, Peter Alexander, Mark Rounsevell

Global review of models for scenario analysis: capabilities and gaps in informing the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

HyeJin Kim, Patrick Walkden, Rebecca Rowe, Bernd Lenzner, Calum Maney

Can the global implementation of the GBF bend the curve of biodiversity loss?

Jonathan Doelman

Downscaling global climate projections to the city scale and beyond

Jun’ya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahahi, Takayuki Nishimura, Hitoshi Wakabayashi

The Future of Climate Adaptation in Jakarta: Estimating Long-Term Metropolitan Socioeconomic and Urban Challenges to Adaptation Using a Participatory Scenario Approach

Alexandre Pereira Santos, Jan Petzold, Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari, Matthias Garschagen

Advances in Climate Migration Modeling and the Mobility and Migration Model Intercomparison Project (3MIP)

Alex de Sherbinin, Andrew Bell, Fabien Cottier, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Thomas Bearpark, Michael Oppenheimer

Improving scenario analyses to study the employment impacts of energy transition

Rudeena Jabar, Haritha Songola, Anjali Sharma

Futures for workers and climate: regional disparities of just transitions in China and India

Augustin Danneaux, Thomas Le Gallic, Julien Lefèvre, Gang He

Actionable futures in a carbon-constrained world: Pragmatic energy scenarios for improving Societal Wellbeing in India

Gaurav Gharde, Alice Larkin, Carly McLachlan

Updated SSP drivers

TBD

Embedding adaptation pathways in socio-economic and climate futures

Marina Andrijevic, Kristie L. Ebi, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Matthias Garschagen, Julius Schlumberger

Digital Transformation within Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Charlie Wilson, Yee Van Fan

Equity in CMIP7 scenarios and beyond

TBD

Integration of impacts in ScenarioMIP

TBD

Next steps for the scenario framework

Bas van Ruijven

This is not an SSP5! Are global and regional SSPs consistent?

Kasper Kok, Simona Pedde, Oliver Johnson, Henrik Carlsen, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Sara Talebian, Xiaoshi Xing

Regional divergence is necessary for salience

Simona Pedde

Developing the UK-Livestock-Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (UK-Livestock-SSPs): A Participatory Co-Design Approach

Kirsty Blair, Isabel Fletcher, Jay Burns, Dominic Moran, Peter Alexander

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Redefining the Chinese Narratives

Weize Song, Zheng Li

Representing policies in scenarios of probabilistic projections: Expected growth of solar PV and onshore wind power in Europe

Nik Zielonka, Evelina Trutnevyte

Modelling political futures along climate scenarios

Julia Leininger, Christopher Wingens

Preparing for the anti-climate politics catalysed by warming

Joel Millward-Hopkins

Scenarios for global abatement and coordination: The implications for national mitigation cost and cost distribution

Taran Fæhn, Hidemichi Yonezawa

MatMat – Hybrid Input-Output framework to estimate country-level carbon and material footprints in future scenarios

Antoine Teixeira, Fanny Vicard, Julien Lefèvre, Bruno Fontaine, J Grand

Modelling circular economy and climate policy with the stock-flow-service nexus

Peter Berrill

A perspective on how to represent the diffusion of energy sufficiency in low-carbon scenarios

Vivien Fisch-Romito, Yannick Oswald

Water Sector Decarbonization and its Impact on Net-Zero Goals for Saudi Arabia

Neal Graham, Mohamad Hejazi, Gokul Iyer, Yang Qiu, Puneet Kamboj, Silvia R Santos Da Silva, Page Kyle

Who Must Reach Net-Zero First? A Systematic Exploration of Fair Climate Policy

Puneet Kamboj

Regional implications of latitudinal stratospheric aerosol injection under different cooperation regimes

Massimo Tavoni, Pietro Andreoni

Paris-alignment beyond Global Temperature Goals: scenario evidence needs to assess countries’ highest possible ambition

Joeri Rogelj, Julia Katharina Schönfeld, Setu Pelz

Beyond Emissions: How Unequal Access to CDR Technologies Shapes Economic Disparities

Raphael Apeaning, Puneet Kamboj, Mohamad Hejazi

Exploring cross-sectoral risk and vulnerability to climate change to the year 2050 across multiple spatial scales across Europe

George Linney, Anita Lazurko, Arpita Singh Panwar, Alexander Wickenden, Eva Loerke, Josep Serra Gallego, Robert Dunford-Brown

Making the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways usable for the impact modelling community

Katja Frieler, Christian Otto, Inga Sauer, Jacob Schewe, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Nico Bauer, Alexander Popp

Scenarios of human development and climate risks

Massimo Tavoni, Marta Mastropietro, Jonathan Spinoni

National scenarios of climate change commitment over the 21st Century: a UK case study

Suraje Dessai, Chris Smith

Navigating the unexpected: The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios

Alaa Al Khourdajie, Alex Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Shivika Mittal, Dirk Jan van de Ven, Panagiotis Fragkos, Haewon McJeon, Ed Byers, Ilkka Keppo, Glen Peters, David McCollum, Eleftheria Zisarou, Adam Hawkes, Ajay Gambhir

Wild cards in the Baltic Sea – are we ready for the unexpected?

Kari Hyytiäinen, Jamie Jenkins, Susa Niiranen, Vilma Sandström

Social Inertia, Future Design and Transformative Scenarios: Leveraging Creativity, Emotion and Imagination

Peter Sutoris

Emerging Indicators, Scenarios, and Frameworks for IAM: Data Driven Change and the Contribution of Youth, Students, and Young Adults

Miguel Rezapour, Clara Zhong, James Wei, Avidane Ceana Cabellero, Phuong Thy Nguyen, Tess Bowen, Carlos Alexis De la Torre, Sarah E. Rebolloso McCullough, Meghana Kotha

Visions and pathways to nature-positive futures for Europe: Inspiring transformative change at the biodiversity nexus

Paula Harrison, Anita Lazurko, HyeJin Kim, Mara de Pater, Aniek Hebinck

Enriching the European Shared Socio-Economic Pathways with considerations of biodiversity and nature using a nexus approach

Paula Harrison, Anita Lazurko, HyeJin Kim, George Linney, Elizabeth Diaz-General, Simeon Vano, Zuzana Harmackova, Mark Rounsevell

Future Nexus Interactions Among Biodiversity, Food, Water, Health and Climate Change: assessing trade-offs and synergies

Odirilwe Selomane, IPBES Nexus Assessment Chapter 3 Authors

Developing Decision Support Tool for Food-Water-Land-Ecosystems Nexus Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

Natan Yimer

Projecting Health Impacts of Clean Cooking Technology Transitions in India using Nationally Representative Individual-Level Data and a Scenario-Based Approach

Arda Aktas, Miguel Poblete Cazenave

Assessing climate change costs for EU households

Lorenza Campagnolo, Enrica Decian, Filippo Pavanello, Giacomo Falchetta, Francesco Colelli

Heterogeneous, Human-Centered Models of Transitions in Residential Space Conditioning

Mohammed R. K. Siam, Zahra Heidari, Karthik Akkiraju, Narasimha D. Rao, Tami C. Bond

Does myopic foresight modeling better capture the real-world energy transition? Hindcasting in 31 European countries

Hui Shen, Xin Wen, Evelina Trutnevyte

Probabilistic electricity system scenarios for 31 European countries

Xin Wen, Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Nik Zielonka, Evelina Trutnevyte

1.5ºC aligned wind and solar benchmarks

Neil Grant, Lara Welder, Tina Aboumahboub, Severin Ryberg, Fadil Razak, Markus Hagemann, Emily Daly, Gustavo de Vivero

Electric Vehicle Aggregation as Grid Flexibility Resource: Methodological Framework and Potential Estimation

Wenkai Ye, Yilin Xie, Hewu Wang, Minggao Ouyang

Integrating PM2.5-Health Feedbacks into Climate Projections: Addressing Gaps in Wellbeing Considerations

Kedi Liu, Ranran Wang, Samir K.C., Anne Goujon, Gregor Kiesewetter, Rutger Hoekstra

Charting China’s carbon neutrality scenario via coupled natural-social modeling

Tianpeng Wang, Fei Teng

A model intercomparison analysis on global poverty alleviation and climate policies

Shiya Zhao, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Tatsuki Ozawa, Seiya Kawaguchi

Integrated assessment of diverse regional futures from crisis to sustainability: GCAM-Based Energy, Land use & Emissions Pathways for CMIP7

Mel George, Christoph Bertram, Andrew Miller, Xin Zhao, Claudia Rodes Bachs, Jay Fuhrman, Rachel Hoesly, Haewon McJeon, Brian O’Neill, Yang Ou, Jon Sampedro, Steve Smith, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Ryna Cui

Updated spatial population projections for the EU: Perspectives on future population dynamics and related uncertainties.

Hedda Bonatz, Theodore Nikoletopoulos, Athanasios T. Vafeidis

FuturePop – Mapping future population at 100m resolution

Laurence Hawker, Andrew Tatem, Jason Hilton, Maksym Bondarenko, Jessica Espey, Natalia Tejedor Garavito, Ian Coady, Sada Saxton, Evgeny Noi

Modeling Urban Change from Past to Present: Comparative Approaches for Gridded Population and Densification Forecasts

Evgeny Noi, Stefan Leyk, Deborah Balk, Mark Montgomery, Bryan R. Jones, Emanuel Agu, Alessandra Carioli

Advancing Population and Human Capital Insights: Updates, Scenarios, and Future Directions in SSP Research

Samir KC

Science-Policy Interface: UNFCCC national Focal Points’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance

Jiesper Tristan Pedersen

Towards endogenising policy change: quantification of empirical insights into the evolution of mitigation policy effort

Aleh Cherp, Anastasia Pavlenko, Lola Nacke, Senjuty Bhowmik, Jessica Jewell

Multi-Model Comparative Analysis of CGE Models for Assessing Climate Policy Impacts in China

Hantang Peng, Xinyi Liu, Chenfei Qu, Da Zhang

Triple Planetary Crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution: Baseline analysis toward 2050

Cecilia Bellora, Ruben Bibas, Rob Dellink, Jean Fouré, Toon Vandyck, Hidemichi Yonezawa

Post-Growth mitigation scenarios to reduce inequality between countries

Gabriele Dabbaghian, Céline Guivarch, Julien Lefèvre

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Global Post-Growth Scenarios

Mengyu Li, Manfred Lenzen

Developing Post-Growth Futures: Moving the SSP framework beyond growth

Alex Edwards, Jarmo Kikstra, Mathias Kirchner, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Michael Miess

Bridging India’s Space Cooling Energy Gap: Pathways towards Sustainable and Equitable Thermal Comfort

Apurva Verma, Anoop Singh

Future scenarios of urban green infrastructure for equity and cooling in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Rui Han, Jessica P.R. Thorn, Robert A. Marchant

Persistent underexposure of high-income groups to extreme climate events in Europe throughout the 21st century

Mehdi Mikou, Céline Guivarch, Améline Vallet, Aglaé Jézéquel

Missing Paris: A scenarios agenda for a just and equitable society on a hotter Earth with a novel biosphere

Christopher Lyon

Gender dimensions of climate change: Future projections of vulnerability and risk at the Sub-National level in India

Jagriti Kher, Savita Aggarwal

Advancing Integrated Scenario Modeling for Urban Flood Risk: Lessons from Hue City

Olabisi S. Obaitor

A Scenario-based Approach to Projecting the INFORM Risk Index in Ethiopia

Domenico Bovienzo, Alex de Sherbinin

Towards a shared approach for scenarios in National Climate Change Risk Assessments

David Jaroszweski, David Dawson

Stress-Testing Climate Futures: A Co-development Exercise to Assessing Extreme Scenarios

Inga Menke, Sylvia Schmidt, Edward Byers, Qinhan Zhu, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Co-creating Sustainable Futures: Integrating Stakeholders Perspectives in the Bioplastics Sector

Ana Rita Farias, Samuel Domingos, Catarina Possidónio, Bernardo Cruz, Eliana Portugal, Sílvia Luís, Ana Loureiro

Engaging the Public in Scenario Development: The Role of Survey Experiments

Karl Scheifinger, Elina Brutschin

Navigating future scenarios for sustainable land management in a mountain social-ecological system in northern Thailand using the KESHO Tool

Pattrawut Pusingha, Robert A. Marchant

A proposal for the systematic incorporation of justice into biodiversity transformational change scenario/pathway design and modelling

Christopher Wong, Elliott Woodhouse, David Leclere, Larissa Nowak, Thomas Shinko, Thomas Kastner

Balancing Nature’s Values: A Justice-Oriented Approach to Land-Use Planning

Camille Venier-Cambron

Justice-Explicit Transformative Change Pathways for Halting Biodiversity in Food and Biomass Value Chains

Elliott Woodhouse, David Leclere, Christopher Wong, Larissa Nowak, Thomas Kastner, Daniel Braun, Koen Kuipers, Thomas Shinko, Jan Boerner, Marta Kozicka, Isabell Richter, Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis

Integrating Circular Economy into mitigation pathways: preliminary results from model intercomparison

Marianne Zanon Zotin

Scenarios of resource efficiency and the circular economy. Comparing supply chain resiliency and emissions reduction potentials.

Jonathan Norman, John Barrett

Upscaling materials recycling to enhance sustainability and economic resilience

Antoine Teixeira, Julien Lefèvre, Frederic Ghersi

Synthetic representation of households – an approach for modelling future national consumption patterns in Sweden

Maximilian Forberg, Johannes Morfeldt, Daniel Johansson, Jonas Nässén

India’s Fossil Phase-down: A Multi-Scenario Analysis for Sectoral Decarbonisation

Atul Kumar, Namrata, Adarsh Kumar Singh, Ankur Agrawal, Kumar Gaurav

A multi-model comparison to explore Korea’s 2035 NDC

Cheolhung Cho, Soyeong Jung, Haewon McJeon, Jiyong Eom, Younghwan Ahn, Chan Park

Developing Future Hydrogen Trade Pathways Toward Korea’s 2050 Carbon Neutrality

Jiwon Kwun, Patrick O’Rourke, Haewon McJeon, Jiyong Eom

Historical developments in Kyoto greenhouse gasses (1985-2023) against scenario projections for the four generations of emission scenarios informing the IPCC

Jiesper Tristan Pedersen, Detlef van Vuuren

The authors of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) called for extended SSPs from the broader community that ‘build on the basic SSPs by providing more detailed qualitative and/or quantitative information to support more specific sectoral and regional analyses.’ Past years have seen a growing number of extended SSPs built to assess implications for economic stability, fiscal planning, and the delivery of social services at regional and sectoral level. After the presenters share their experiences with building regional scenarios, we will invite the audience to join a forward-looking exploration of how scenarios for global assessment can be linked to local and regional scenario development.

Moderator: Eric Kemp-Benedict, Associate Professor of Ecological Economics, Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds
Panellists:

• Timothy Carter, Research Professor, Policy and Risks Group, Climate Solutions Unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
• Senator Crystal Drakes, Economist, sustainability strategist, and foresight practitioner
• Kasper Kok, Assistant Professor, Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University
• Simona Pedde, Scenario Analyst, Senior Researcher, Wageningen University
• Saritha S. Vishwanathan, Assistant Professor, Department of Environment Engineering, Kyoto University Katsura, and senior researcher, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Principles of integrated sustainability assessments for the 2030s

Jan Bakkes

Leveraging Machine Learning to Reveal Transparency in Integrated Assessment Model Ensembles

Yixin Sun, Hongbo Duan, Yun Tang, et al.

Integrating impacts and closing loops – applications of the Rapid Impact Model Emulator in IAMs

Edward Byers, Michaela Werning, Mahe Perrette, Niklas Schwind, Adriano Vinca, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Carl Schleussner

Decision analysis of mitigation pathways under uncertainty in the climate response

Elmar Kriegler, Gabriel Abrahão, Zebedee Nicholls

Downscaled Projections of GDP, Urbanization, and Population by Age, Gender, and Education for Europe under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3.0

Benedetta Sestito, Lena Reimann, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Hedda Bonatz, Wouter Botzen, Jeroen Aerts

Approaches to Modelling Climate Migration

Tom Bearpark, Nic Choquette-Levy, Michael Oppenheimer, Jordan Rosenthal-Kay, Tingyin Xiao

A New Framework for Country-Level Gini Projections: Integrating Redistribution and Structural Drivers into SSP-based Climate Scenarios

Miguel Poblete Cazenave, Arda Aktas

Designing a new generation of national climate scenarios

Jason A. Lowe, Carol McSweeney, Neha Mittal

Revisiting the Tyndall Centre’s 2005 UK Energy Scenarios: Lessons Learned and Implications for Future Climate Policy

Alice Larkin, Gaurav Gharde, Sarah Mander, Carly McLachlan

Panel discussion on UK scenarios

John Barrett (moderator), panelists TBD

Charting the Blue Doughnut: Scenario Pathways for a Safe and Just Blue Economy in Barbados

Crystal Drakes, Winston Moore, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Vanessa Schweizer

Modeling greenhouse gas emission pathways for a wider range of possible futures: degrowth-, green-growth- and fossil-fueled- SSPs in Switzerland

Quirin Oberpriller, Nicolas Schmid, Andreas Kemmler, Lena Gubler, Juerg Fuessler

Sustainable Synergy and Grounded Imaginaries: A Case Study of Dhaji Diwari Method in Himachal Pradesh

Kirti Sharma

Minimizing climate chaos through Indigenous Wellbeing: Towards an ‘Indigenous Futurity Index’ while theorizing ‘Indigenization’ and pushing back against stereotypes

Lee Francis IV, David Karabelnikoff, Carlee Wilson

Exploring Fair and Efficient Pathways for Managing Climate Overshoot Responsibility

Setu Pelz

Accountability in a 1.5°C overshoot world

Gaurav Ganti, Sabine Fuss, Setu Pelz, Joeri Rogelj, Keywan Riahi, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

The Effects of Burden-Sharing Principles and Pathways to Net-Zero on Carbon Dioxide Removal Obligations in 1.5°C Overshoot Scenarios

Kasra Motlaghzadeh, Neil Craik, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Vanessa Schweizer

Exploring research requirements for the next generation of overshoot scenarios

Nico Bauer, Lena Kilian, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Elmar Kriegler, Leon Merfort, Franziska Piontek, Jessica Strefler

Adaptation pathways for biodiversity conservation under climate change

Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Haruka Ohashi, Akiko Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Wenchao Wu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tetsuya Matsui, Junya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi

Quantifying the limits of climate change adaptation: the case of vegetation fire

Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Doug Kelley, Joao Teixeira, James Millington

Integrating climate-related ecosystem service mismatch in spatiotemporal assessment of urban excess heat risk

Helena Duchková, Davide Geneletti, Davina Vačkářová

Uncertainty communication and inaccurate energy scenarios: empirical testing with users

Valeria Sorgato, Evelina Trutnevyte

The Scenario Compass Initiative: Making Scenario Information Accessible

Keywan Riahi, Leon Clarke, Karl Scheifinger

Scenarios Databases as knowledge infrastructures: history and way forward

Béatrice Cointe

Indicators of Global Climate Change

Piers Forster

Representative Transformation Pathways of Food Systems: A Tool for Assessing Our Collective Health in 2050

Russell Cain

Implementing uncertain food demand in scenarios

Brian O’Neill, Kanishka Narayan, Stephanie Morris

The critical role of dietary change and waste reduction in food system emissions mitigation

Brinda Yarlagadda, Jay Fuhrman, Seth Monteith, Laura Aldrete, Javier Patron, Xin Zhao

Multi-sector demand for critical materials in energy system

Yang Qiu

The Role of Critical Minerals and Materials in Energy System Evolution

Gokul Iyer, Seth Monteith, Dan Plechaty, Jun Shepard, Allen Fawcett, Jim McFarland, Jae Edmonds

How does electrochemical energy storage for photovoltaic power generation affect the demand for critical resources under the climate target?

Guoen Yin

Decarbonizing land-based transport modes in Saudi Arabia

Puneet Kamboj

Deep Decarbonization in Thailand’s Transport Sector: The Impacts of Modal Shifts, Technology Transition, and Economic Impacts

Achiraya Chaichaloempreecha, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Runsen Zhang, Bundit Limmeechokchai

A pathway design framework for national freight transport decarbonization strategies

Yann Briand, Dipti Gupta, Marcio de Almeida D’Agosto, Amit Garg, Fadiel Ahjum, Ucok W.R. Siagan, Steve Pye, François Combes

Analyzing sectoral policies for deep decarbonization: the case of national freight transportation

Lauren Harry-Villain, Yann Briand, Hilton Trollip, Henri Waisman, Sidsel Ahlmann Jensen, Mark Gjerek, Rico Merkert, Amin Hassani, Marcio Dagosto, George Vasconcelos Goes, Ricardo Delgado Cadena, Dipti Gupta, Jordi Tovilla, Thalia Hernandez, Nnaemeka Emodi, Alicia Zhao, Ryna Yiyun Cui, Frederic Rudolph, Catherine Hall, Harro van Asselt, Maria Rosa Munoz, Daniel Neves Schmitz-Gonçalves

The scenarios for climate and societal futures for the coastal region of Kenya

John Thoya Maitha, Ibrahim, Ioannis Tsipouridis

Reducing the catastrophic risk potential from unseen climate extremes: findings from workshop discussions and a path forward

Tom Wood, Hebe Nicholson, Jenix Justine, Tom Matthews

Assessing scenarios of Planetary Boundary transgression – Using the FRIDA system dynamics model

Axel E. Eriksson, David Collste, Jannes Breier, Dieter Gerten, William A. Schoenberg, Lars J. Nilsson

Natural biome changes and climate feedbacks in long-term future climate model simulations

Daniel Hill

FeliX ISE: An interactive and participatory tool for exploring behaviour change scenarios in the food system

Ryan Yi Wei Tan, Filippos Marntirosian, Deepthi Swamy, Nikolaos Tantaroudas, Sibel Eker

An economic framework for extending greenhouse gas emissions from multiple Integrated Assessment Models beyond 2100

Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka

Sectoral drivers of 1.5°C compatibility: A machine learning analysis comparing outcomes from PRIM, SHAP, and clustering

Georgia Ray

Enhancing dynamic adaptive policy pathways with pathway operators for clearer visualization of climate intervention decisions

Hannah Rebekah Thigpen, Vanessa Schweizer

Tracking global peaking

Claire Fyson, Sabine Fuss, Carl Schleussner, Neil Grant

Exploring the interplay of SRM and CDR in climate change mitigation strategies

Yue He, Thomas Gasser

Toward a consistent comparison of the social cost of carbon and target-consistent carbon prices with application to Korea

Yohan Choi, Chan Park, Jonghyun Yoo, Haewon C. McJeon, Jiyong Eom, Yeong Jae Kim

Commercialization and consumerism: Catalysts of urban sprawl and land use transformation in Bengaluru

Dr Shivakumar Nayka.G

Using classroom drama methods as an educational tool for teaching climate action in schools

Carolyn Bradley

Transformation scenarios for the wetlands of the V Baoulé (Côte d(Ivoire) : climate impacts and anthropogenic pressures by 2050

Mian Joseph Atta, Brou Raymond Yao, Djenebou Soumahoro, Kan Émile Koffi

Apples of Discord in the climate code? And other questions (Or: What might we learn from the humanities?)

LM Bogad, Harlin/Hayley Steele, Alisha Chan

Towards a feminist and more participatory approach to scenarios: What we can learn from Asking Different Questions (ADQ)

Sarah E. Rebolloso McCullough, Harlin/Hayley Steele, Kase Wheatley, Anna B. Kawiecki, Alisha Y. Chan, Keith Taylor, Meghana Kotha, Miguel Rezapour, Clara Zhong, James Wei, Avidane Ceana Cabellero, Phuong Thy Nguyen, Tess Bowen, Carlos Alexis De la Torre

Sunshade Earth – Renegotiating the Earth’s relationship with the sun

William Gillam

Urban scenarios for city transformation: Climate adaptation and resilience strategies for the resource constrained metropolitan city of India

Shailendra K. Mandal, Supriya Rani

Application to post-net-zero scenarios of CARMEN, a new carbon cycle emulator coupled with the FaIR SCM

Alex Romero Prieto, Camilla Mathison, Piers Forster, Glen Harris, Ben Booth, Chris Smith

Grounding climate scenarios in place: Co-designing material futures in the built environment

Nuala Flood

Household’s community forest willingness to conserve forest ecosystem for carbon sequestration in Cameroon

Sophie Michelle Eke Balla

Biome-specific potential benefits and risks of afforestation on biodiversity under future climate change

Pavithra Rangani Wijenayake, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Haruka Ohashi, Akiko Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tetsuya Matsui, Kiyoshi Takahashi

A cross-impact balance analysis of marine carbon removal using legal, socio-technical, and environmental insights

Stephanie Rose Cortinovis, Vanessa Schweizer, Neil Craik

Exploring land use governance with serious games: Lessons from Mexico and Denmark

Yair Asael Alpuche Alvarez

Arts-based approaches to global environmental governance: the entangled voices of rivers

Malaika Cunningham

Identifying drivers of vulnerability across scales through participatory downscaling of shared socioeconomic pathways: insights from two Global South megacities

Jan Petzold, Alexandre Pereira Santos, Deepal Doshi, Ravinder Dhiman, Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari

Serious board games on climate change as a tool for modeling scenarios

Thomas Yount

Past floods as learning foundations: Interdependency and scenario planning for healthcare resilience

Mawaddah Ghazali, Chee Yew Wong, Paola Sakai, Valentina Lichtner

Interactions between global and local drivers of vegetation change in India: Consequences for ecosystem services

Dilip GT Naidu, Jagdish Krishnaswamy

Integrating justice indicators into shared socio-economic pathways of Japan

Manuela G. Hartwig, Irina Melnikova

AI-driven trade intelligence and sustainable economic scenarios for Africa

Victor Oshodi

Comprehensive yet comprehensible: Navigating uncertain climate risks scenarios for local regions to set adaptation priorities

Ted Buskop, Bart van den Hurk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland

En-ROADS Consistent with Other Integrated Assessment Models: A statistical comparison based on NGFS scenario results

Kaveh Dianati

Modeling the SHAPE scenarios in IFs

Jonathan Moyer

A Dynamic Scalable Web-Model for Experimenting with Future Socio-Climate Scenarios

Ben J H Matthews

Synthetic Digital Twin: A Generative Framework Bridging Earth Observation and Socio-Behavioral Dynamics

Antonio Correas, Nathan Kunz

An ecosystem of systematic CDR reviews

Claire Fyson

Emulating an Integrated Assessment Model to Project Long-Term Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Removal Pathways to 2300

Katsumasa Tanaka, Weiwei Xiong, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer

The Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal in the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies

Jay Fuhrman

Towards climate Minsky moment instability scenarios

Jean-Francois Mercure

Achieving the Finance targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework: a scenario approach

Jimena Alvarez, Sophus zu Ermgassen, Emma O’Donnell, Juan Sabuco, Sarah Gall, Isobel Hawkins, Mattia Troiano, Mark Jwaideh, Lydia Marsden, Nicola Ranger

Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?

Stavros Zenios

Qualitative storylines and quantitative scenarios for New Economies: translating storylines on different economic paradigms to a variety of models

Nicole J. van den Berg, Mauricio Rodriguez Acosta, Hettie Boonman, Paolo Pisciella, Michael Kuhn, Anouk Geenen, Stephan Slingerland

Towards a scenario framework for sustainable development

Elmar Kriegler

Conceptualizing and Operationalizing Malleability in Sociometabolic Systems: Foundations for Sustainable Wellbeing Transformations

Shonali Pachauri, Helmut Haberl

Improved living standards through reduction of income inequality does not jeopardize the achievement of existing climate pledges

Jon Sampedro, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Maria Victoria Román, Manuel Tomás, Kanishka B. Narayan, Pralit Patel, Iñaki Arto

Sub-national Just Sustainable Transitions Assessment for India

Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan

From Carbon Markets to Climate Justice: A Scalable, Community-Driven Approach in Colombia’s Cement Sector

Adriana Olga Alzamora Anticona, Isabella Urbano Trujillo, Sonakshi Saha

Whose Empowerment Counts? Gendered Power, Market Interventions, and Development Scenarios in Tanzania and Malawi

Ruth Smith, Mapenzie Tauzie, Susannah Sallu, Stephen Whitfield

Food Sovereignty in Brooklyn, New York: Pathways to Resilient, Black-Led Food Systems

Storm Lewis

Assessing Feasibility of Integrated Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Under Present and Future Conditions Using Coping Capacity Indicators

Eva Loerke, Anita Lazurko, George Linney, Lokendra Karki, Robert Dunford

Co-development of new SSP-based integrated socioeconomic and climate scenarios to support adaptation planning for key regional systems in Finland

Timothy R. Carter

Farmers climate adaptation responses to drought in India: Lessons for sustainable development pathways

K. Ravi Shankar, C.A. Rama Rao, G. Nirmala, K. Nagasree, Jagriti Rohit, C.N. Anshida Beevi, P.K. Pankaj, V.K. Singh

Probabilistic Projections of Cascading Tipping Element Interactions Under Overshoot Scenarios

Tessa Moeller, Annika Hoegner, Nico Wunderling, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Scenarios of cascading tipping points in energy transitions

Femke Nijsse, Cormac Lynch, Amir Akther, Tim Lenton, Aileen Lam

Future scenarios for cascading disasters in cities.

Roger Cremades, John Marsham

Designing a framework for stress testing scenarios for the insurance sector

Jason A. Lowe, Anubhav Choudhary, Iain Clacher

Exploring just pathways toward nature-positive futures

Lucas Rutting

Interpretation of the KM-GBF targets is contingent on value perspective

Jay Burns, Peter Alexander, Mark Rounsevell

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

HyeJin Kim, Garry Peterson, Hyeonjeong Kim, Brian Miller

An inclusive approach to enriching Global Marine Scenarios

Bruno Oliveira, Julie Bremner, Josefin Ekstedt, Furqan Asif, Berthe Vastenhoud, David Lusseau, Angel Borja

Geopolitical conflict impedes climate change mitigation

Manfred Lenzen, Mengyu Li

Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs

Dirk-Jan van de Ven

Accounting for the historical failure to cut emissions in deep decarbonisation scenarios

Neil Grant, Lara Welder, Dimitris Tsekeris, Carley Reynolds, Marie-Charlotte Geffray, Gunnar Luderer, Chen Chris Gong, Fabrice Lécuyer, Jarusch Müßel

Toward Integrated Pathways for Climate Mitigation and Material Use Reduction: Insights from the JUSTICE-MATTER Model

Giacomo Marangoni

From Scenarios to Real-World Mobility Solutions: Charting the Path by Modelling Sufficiency

Valentin Stuhlfauth, Saheb Yamina, Bouzouina Louafi

Quantifying minimum mobility needs: the Who, the Where and the Why

Marlin Arnz, Zakia Soomauroo, Vivien Fisch-Romito, Jihoon Min, Joel Millward-Hopkins, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Caroline Zimm, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bas Van Ruijven

Resources in urban and rural transportation infrastructure: 1970 – 2070

Martijn van Engelenburg

FASTMIP: The Fast Assessment for Scenario Trajectories Multi-emulator Intercomparison Project

Sonia I. Seneviratne, MIchael G. Windisch, Yann Quilcaille, Camilla Mathison, Eleonore Burke, Laila K. Gohar, Chris D. Jones

The spatial climate emulator MESMER and its potential in the modelling of scenarios

Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, Victoria Bauer, Mathias Hauser, Lorenzo Pierini, Jonas Schwaab, Sarah Schöngart, Sonia I. Seneviratne

Developing the PRIME modelling tool for novel scenario impact modelling.

Daniel Hooke, Camilla Mathison, David Sexton, Eleanor Burke, Andrew Wiltshire, Chris D Jones, Laila Gohar

The effective reservoirs model and a simple but precise emission response function

Paul Alkemade

Beyond Story and Simulation: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios to Guide Direct Air Capture Policy in Canada

Kasra Motlaghzadeh, Vanessa Schweizer, Stephanie Rose Cortinovis, Neil Craik

Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal

Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Sabine Fuss

The global mismatch between equitable carbon dioxide removal liability and capacity

Pu Yang

Sovereigns on thinning ice: Debt sustainability, climate impacts, and adaptation

Stavros Zenios

Assessing the materiality of nature-related financial risk for the European Union: a narrative-based approach to scenario development

Jimena Alvarez, Andrej Ceglar, Francesco Cimini, Carlo Pasqua, Juan Sabuco, Emma O’Donnell, Mark Jwaideh, Francesca Danieli, John Hutchinson, Irene Heemskerk, Nicola Ranger

Financialization in the Development of Carbon Markets in China

Ruoxuan Li

Modelling values across Europe consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)

Hazel Pettifor, Maureen Agnew, Charlie Wilson

Scenarios of morally induced behavioural change at scale

Viktoria Spaiser, Ajaykumar Mannivanan

Rethinking Climate Skepticism: Developmentalism and Environmental Values in Turkey

S. Sena Akkoc, Daniela Kızıldağ, Sinan Erensü

Deconstructing the present to imagine desirable futures: A framework for building multiscale socio-environmental imaginaries

Sara Talebian

Diverging Kenyan food system futures: markets and economic growth or food justice and sovereignty?

Lucas Rutting

The Future of Pastoralism in the Changing Climate and Modern Land Use Management in Kajiado County

Sammy Oleku

Implementing E.U Codes, Regulations and Voluntary Sustainability Standards: Future Scenarios of Sustainability and Equity in Cocoa Value Chain in Ghana

Edward Amankwah

Rural Wealth and Consumption of Nutritious and Healthy Diets: Panel Data Evidence from Zambia

Sophie Michelle Eke Balla

Data Centre Electricity Demand in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Yee Van Fan, Charlie Wilson

Climate change mitigation scenarios incorporating direct and indirect artificial intelligence (AI) impacts

Hamish Beath, Shivika Mittal, Joeri Rogelj, Robin Lamboll

Digitalisation and low-carbon lifestyle: Projections for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

Hazel Pettifor, Maureen Agnew, Charlie Wilson

Integrating human-Earth feedback loops in the new Integrated Assessment Model FRIDA

Chris Wells, William Schoenberg, Benjamin Blanz, Chris Smith, Alexandre Koberle, Adakudlu Muralidhar, David Collste, Axel E. Eriksson, Lennart Ramme, Jannes Breier, Beniamino Callegari, Martin Grimeland, Andreas Nicolaidis, Jefferson K. Rajah, Cecilie Mauritzen

Complex Risk Assessment Framework for Earth System Tipping Points

Viktoria Spaiser

Integration of impacts, adaptation and mitigation in the next generation of scenarios

Franziska Piontek, Nico Bauer, Laurin Köhler-Schindler

Reassessing Climate Policy Under Deep Physical Uncertainty Through Robust Decision-Making

Thomas Gasser, Armon Rezai, Côme Cheritel, Artem Baklanov, Michael Obersteiner

Swiss forest sector pathways and their contribution to net-zero emissions until 2050

Annina Guthauser

Towards fire-resilient mitigation pathways in the AFOLU sector: modelling burned area and fire emissions feedback in integrated assessment models

Théo Rouhette, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Kanishka Narayan, Claudia Tebaldi, Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Neus Escobar.

Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets

Michael Windisch, Florian Humpenöder, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Gunnar Luderer, Jan Dietrich, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Gabriel Abrahao, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp

Mitigation of Anthropogenic Aerosols Causes an Increase in BVOC Emissions

Yue Chen, Cat Scott, Steven Turnock, Steven Rumbold, Laura Wilcox, Bjørn Samset, Robert Allen, Stephen Arnold

National land-based climate change mitigation strategies for long-term climate goals

Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Akihiko Ito, Kiyoshi Takahashi

Solar Radiation Modification Impacts on the Climate: a Structured Meta-Analysis

Sam Kaufmann, Jean-François Lamarque

Solar PV Deployment for Spain’s Net-Zero Transition: Insights from the One Earth Climate Model

Jonathan Rispler, Sven Teske

Spatially explicit layouts of onshore solar and wind power plants in China under different land use constraints

Jianxiang Shen, Wenjia Cai

Envisioning the Future Role of Offshore Wind in Finland’s Energy Mix

Jamie Jenkins