This session will focus on the potential role of scenarios in the coming IPCC Working Group reports; the role of scenarios for integration across disciplines and communities, and the potential connections to IPBES.

There is increasing evidence that people are suffering and dying from climate change, that risks will continue to rise for nearly all climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change, and that health systems are vulnerable. The session will discuss extending the SSP narratives and quantifications for the health sector to inform more robust and useful projections of the magnitude and burden of future risks and of the effectiveness of policy responses under different climate and development pathways.

Updates of the SSP and ScenarioMIP framework

Detlef van Vuuren

Overview of emissions and climate projections

TBD

High and medium scenarios

TBD

Towards the next generation of stringent mitigation scenarios: From ScenarioMIP to the AR7

Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Nico Bauer, Elmar Kriegler, Gabriel Abrahão, Lavinia Baumstark, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Florian Humpenöder, Fabrice Lécuyer, Gunnar Luderer, Leon Merfort, Alexander Popp, Jessica Strefler

Energy system developments across the scenarioMIP scenarios

Christoph Bertram

Exploring land-use and GHG emission futures: Insights from CMIP7 ScenarioMIP

Alexander Popp, Florian Humpenöder, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gerd Brantes Angelkorte, Pedro Rochedo, Xin Zhao, Jonathan Doelman, Astrid Bos, Detlef van Vuuren, Yazhen Wu, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Cindy Azuero, Laurent Drouet, Elmar Kriegler

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Switzerland (SSP-CH): A novel approach applied to develop current national SSPs

Lena Gubler, Pascal Tschumi, Marco Pütz, Irmi Seidl, Jürg Füssler, Quirin Oberpriller, Nicolas Schmid, Sophie Bogler, David Giger, Andreas Kemmler, Alexander Piégsa, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Minh Phuong Vu, Andreas Brutsche, Almuth Kirchner

National land use pathways for Germany and their implications for Ecosystems and Biodiversity – a modelling approach based on new national SSPs

Maximilian Witting, Karina Winkler, Felix Gulde, Mark Rounsevell, Matthias Garschagen

Downscaling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the Czech Republic: A novel integration of horizon scanning and stakeholder validation in an Eastern European context

Lenka Suchá, Eliška K. Lorencová, Magdaléna Koudelková, Jitka Martínková, Zuzana Harmáčková

Synthesis of physical climate storylines through common policy directions (CPDs)

Taro Kunimitsu, Anton Orlov, Jana Sillmann

Impacts of industrial policies on decarbonization pathways in the European Union through a modelling approach

Alice Di Bella

Futuring Capacity in Energy and Climate Governance: Integrating Policy Analysis and Foresight for Japan’s Energy Future

Manuela G. Hartwig, Masahiro Sugiyama, Hiroto Shiraki

Estimating effects of existing policies on GHG emissions through linked modelling: the case of Switzerland

Jean Chateau, Luisa Lutz, Evangelos Panos, Jules Schers, Toon Vandyck

The Net Zero Futures Platform: pathways for transforming land use for net zero, nature and people.

Dr Sarah Sinclair

Imagining a net zero health system of the future

Caitríona Callan, Genevieve Cameron, Anya Gopfert, Jay Burt, Tom Hardie

Net-zero compatible development pathways in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa: lessons for short-term actions

Yann Briand, Francisco Lallana, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Fei Teng, Amit Garg, Retno Dewi, Jordi Tovilla, Bryce McCall

Technologies Enabling Low-Cost Net-Zero Pathway in Saudi Arabia

Yang Qiu

En Route to Paris Goals: Prioritising Well-Being in the Fair Sharing of Global Carbon Budgets

Gaurav Gharde, Alice Larkin, Carly McLachlan

Growth, Equity, and Urgency: How Faster Economic Convergence Reshapes Climate Ambition

Mel George, Haewon McJeon, Anand Patwardhan

Fair climate finance and mitigation benefits under climate uncertainty

Adriano Vinca, Marina Andrijevic, Edward Byers, Setu Pelz, Jarmo Kikstra, Matt Gidden, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi

Use of scenarios in national climate change risk assessment for the health sector in Europe

Sari Kovats, Grace Turner

Leveraging Climate-Sensitive Disease Modelling for Health Resilience in a Changing Climate

Anna B. Kawiecki

Children disproportionately exposed to attributable heat stress today and under near-term warming of 1.5°C and 2°C

Rosa Pietroiusti, Erich Fischer, Rupert Stuart-Smith, Luke J. Harrington, Chloe Brimicombe, Matthias Mengel, Annalisa Savaresi, Sam Adelman, Wim Thiery

Health impacts and socioeconomic inequalities of future outdoor air pollution in Europe

Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Jon Sampedro, Dirk Jan Van de Ven, Russell Horowitz

Mapping the solution space through multi-layered scenario analysis

Mark Dekker, Alaa Al Khourdajie

A likely story: scenarios, projections and predictions

Robin Lamboll

Assessing and visualizing mitigation policy effort through probabilistic and counterfactual scenarios

Jessica Jewell, Avi Jakhmola, Vadim Vinichenko, Anastasia Pavlenko, Aleh Cherp

Complexity and uncertainty in future precipitation across climate transition zone in South-Eastern Africa: A climate narratives approach

Ajay Bhave, Neha Mittal, Suraje Dessai

An Integrated Model for Nature Future Scenarios

TianXiang Yue, ChenChen Wu

Modelling human and nature outcomes under scenarios of KM-GBF target implementation

Jay Burns, Peter Alexander, Mark Rounsevell

Global review of models for scenario analysis: capabilities and gaps in informing the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

HyeJin Kim, Patrick Walkden, Rebecca Rowe, Bernd Lenzner, Calum Maney

Can the global implementation of the GBF bend the curve of biodiversity loss?

Jonathan Doelman

Urban imaginaries for the 21st century

Marta Berbés-Blázquez

Downscaling global climate projections to the city scale and beyond

Jun’ya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahahi, Takayuki Nishimura, Hitoshi Wakabayashi

The Future of Climate Adaptation in Jakarta: Estimating Long-Term Metropolitan Socioeconomic and Urban Challenges to Adaptation Using a Participatory Scenario Approach

Alexandre Pereira Santos, Jan Petzold, Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari, Matthias Garschagen

Advances in Climate Migration Modeling and the Mobility and Migration Model Intercomparison Project (3MIP)

Alex de Sherbinin, Andrew Bell, Fabien Cottier, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Thomas Bearpark, Michael Oppenheimer

Improving scenario analyses to study the employment impacts of energy transition

Rudeena Jabar, Haritha Songola, Anjali Sharma

Futures for workers and climate: regional disparities of just transitions in China and India

Augustin Danneaux, Thomas Le Gallic, Julien Lefèvre, Gang He

Actionable futures in a carbon-constrained world: Pragmatic energy scenarios for improving Societal Wellbeing in India.

Gaurav Gharde, Alice Larkin, Carly McLachlan